The Maldives, a small island nation in the Indian Ocean, has been thrust into a geopolitical tug-of-war between India and China. The two Asian giants have been competing for influence in the Maldives, which is strategically located on key shipping lanes between Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
As the Maldives prepares for presidential elections this year, the China-India divide has become a major issue in domestic politics. The current president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, came to power in 2018 with the backing of India, which helped him defeat the previous pro-China government. However, Solih’s popularity has waned in recent months, and his opponents are now exploiting his perceived pro-India stance to gain political advantage.
One of Solih’s main challengers, former president Abdulla Yameen, is a vocal critic of India and has signaled that he would seek closer ties with China if he wins the election. Yameen, who is currently serving a five-year jail term for corruption, has accused India of interfering in Maldivian politics and has promised to restore relations with China. Yameen’s stance has won him support from a growing number of Maldivians who are disillusioned with Solih’s government.
Meanwhile, another challenger, former president Mohamed Nasheed, is a strong advocate of India and has warned of the dangers of allowing China to gain too much influence in the Maldives. Nasheed, who served as president from 2008 to 2012, has accused China of engaging in debt-trap diplomacy and has called for a more balanced foreign policy that takes into account the interests of all major powers.
The China-India rivalry has also played out in the Maldives’ economic and infrastructure development. China has been investing heavily in the Maldives in recent years, funding projects such as the Sinamale Bridge, which connects the capital city of Male to the airport island of Hulhule. However, India has also been an important development partner for the Maldives, funding projects such as the Hanimaadhoo International Airport and providing financial assistance for social welfare programs.
As the Maldives grapples with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the choice between China and India has become even more stark. While China has offered debt relief and economic aid to help the Maldives weather the crisis, India has also extended support in the form of medical supplies and other assistance.
The Maldives’ next president will face the challenge of balancing the competing interests of China and India, while also addressing the country’s domestic challenges such as climate change, economic inequality, and political polarization. The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the Maldives’ relations with its neighbors and for the wider geopolitical dynamics of the Indian Ocean region.
